FOREX WORLD TREND

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The euro zone is likely to exit from recession in the third quarter thanks to a combination of stronger global demand and government stimulus that boosted its performance above expectations in the second quarter.

The euro zone economy shrank, but only just, by 0.1 percent in the second quarter with Germany and France posting a surprisingly early return to growth, data showed on Thursday.

But high and rising unemployment, falling credit to companies and large excess production capacity, likely to limit corporate investment, are still headwinds the economy of the 16 countries using the euro will have to grapple with.

The faster exit from recession will make the European Central Bank less likely to cut interest rates further and shift the bank's focus towards withdrawing liquidity from the market, with some rate tightening possible in 2010, economists said.

SMALLER OVERALL 2009 CONTRACTION

The European Commission and some economists have forecast the euro zone would only return to quarterly growth at the start of 2010. With a third quarter start looking now likely, economists have revised upwards their GDP forecasts for 2009 and 2010.

Commerzbank raised it GDP forecast to -3.5 percent for 2009 from -3.8 percent and kept its 2010 view unchanged at +1.5 percent. Goldman Sachs also said it would raise forecast
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